Do we have a problem with Car theft?

What does the Home Office think about vehicle crime? Here 's a reassuring quote :

"We've already had success in reducing vehicle crime - in recent years vehicle crime in the UK has been steadily falling. "

And another :

"Vehicle-related theft has fallen by 51 per cent since 1997, according to the authoritative British Crime Survey (BCS) 2005/06. The risk of having your vehicle stolen is very low – about once every 107 years.

In 2005 199,531 cars were stolen in England, Scotland and Wales. This is 38,394 fewer thefts than in 2004. "

These figures come from the 2006 Car Theft Index (most recent available). Good news, eh? Except that 199,531 cars stolen means 200,000(ish) households losing their second most valuable possession; 200,000 potentially dangerous drivers on our roads; 200,000 insurance claims. I'd say this was a remarkable level of criminality.

To put these figures another way, having your car stolen once every 107 years means that if you drive for 53 years, there's a 50/50 chance that your car will be stolen at some point. Or if you live in a street with 100 cars (say, 50 houses) the likelihood is that one car will be stolen from your street every year. Not such a rarity when you look at it like this.

So why are the figures falling? The same Car Theft Index provides a clue :

"Cars that were between 12 and 14 years old (registered between 1991 and 1993) faced the greatest risk of being stolen, with a theft rate of 22 cars per 1,000 registered.

Cars registered between 2003 and 2005 had the lowest rates of theft, with three stolen per 1,000 registered."

In other words, the annual reductions we're seeing might have little or nothing to do with policing effectiveness - it may simply be that newer cars are harder to nick. That's good news for the long term, but it speaks volumes about Home Office complacency.